A Moment on the Earth By Gregg Easterbroook,
Viking Press, New York, 1995, 745 pages, $12 paper A Moment of Truth, Correcting
the Scientific Errors in Gregg Easterbrook's A Moment on the Earth By
Leonie Haimson, Environmental Defense Fund, New York, Part I (1995, 52 pages),
Part II (1996, 110 pages), free at www.edf.org.
In 1995, Gregg Easterbrook published a much-publicized and detailed book
on the environment. Shortly afterwards, the Environmental Defense Fund published
162 pages of rebuttals, focusing only on facts. During 1996-7, I taught a graduate
course "Quantitative Aspects of Global and Environmental Problems" at the University
of Maryland and at EPA. For their term papers, several of my students carried
out a side-by-side comparison of Easterbrook's, A Moment on the Earth with
the Environmental Defense Fund's rebuttal, A Moment of Truth. I recently got
re-interested in this debate when writing a chapter on climate change, so I
will only address that issue here.
Good news on Easterbrook. He raises some good points. The environmental movement
has made great strides to be proud of since the first Earth Day in 1970. He
concludes that we should work on the environmental disasters in the lesser-developed
countries, and relax somewhat in the U.S. He infers that the environmental
movement has great difficulty in prioritizing its agenda. He comments on some
of the errors of the environmentalists, but on balance he seems to be somewhat
happy with the status quo. Some of this strikes a familiar cord since asbestos
removal and carcinogenic electricity have been handled poorly, wasting billions
of dollars. Have the environmentalists harmed themselves by pushing some issues
beyond reason? Of course one cannot trust either side. We all know that industry
will try to cut corners to make money. On the other hand, the environmental
movement has many leaders, little direction, and can exaggerate to get our
attention. Industry has to be more careful with its statements or it will end
up in court, while judicial action is not much of a threat to the environmentalists.
But the perception of the environmentalists as a whole is politically important
if they want to fulfill their agenda. It is politically difficult for environmental
groups to comment on the overstatements of other environmental groups, to separate
the goats from the sheep. I agree that the planet has problems and I don't
mind spending our money to fix things, but it would be nice if they could discipline
themselves. In this sense Easterbrook's book is useful.
Bad news on Easterbrook's Substance. Unfortunately for Easterbrook, when
I did a side-by-side comparison, EDF won hands down. He claims only one inch
of ocean rising, when in fact it is 4 to 8 inches. He claims that some environmental
scientists are claiming a "runaway" greenhouse, but this is a false argument.
The GCM models calculate 2-5 degrees C from a doubling of carbon dioxide, not
a runaway greenhouse. As a journalist he talked too much to the critics and
fails to discuss the weakness in their arguments. He seems not to believe that
the planet is getting warmer, of which there is little doubt. True, the strong
correlation between higher temperatures and more carbon dioxide does not prove
causality, but it certainly is important. He avoids the science of explaining
how a doubled carbon dioxide level warms the atmosphere. I found several errors
beyond those on the EDF list, so I can't give him a passing grade on climate
change substance. Interestingly enough, he accepts the suggestion of carbon
reductions from better technology, which he thinks we ought to adopt. He concludes
in the chapter on Global Cold as follows: "Current alarms about global warming
appear exaggerated. But even if there exists but a slight chance that artificial
greenhouse emissions will engage the geologic gears that summon the next ice
age, it is in society's urgent interest to prevent that day." (Yes, he alludes
to the "next ice age".) In the next chapter on Global Warmth, he concludes
as follows: "Climate change might lead [to global extinction]. Any reasonable
policy that reduces the odds of climate change is more than worth the price." After
48 pages of "it is not likely", he strangely concludes that society should
spend lots of money to avoid either warm or cold climate change, but without
defining his criteria for effectiveness.
David Hafemeister
Physics Department
California Polytechnic State University
San Juis Obispo, CA 93407
Why People Believe Weird Things: Pseudoscience, Superstition,
and Other Confusions of Our Time By Michael Shermer, W. H. Freeman and
Company, New York, 1997, ISBN 0-7167-3090-1 (hardback edition), 306 pp.
In the wake of the Kansas Board of Education decision to effectively drop
the teaching of evolution and the big bang from the science curriculum it is
particularly fortunate that Michael Shermer's 1997 book is now expanded and
available in paperback. This book has generated a good deal of interest among
scientists and non-scientists alike, and for good reason. The author teaches
the history of science, technology and evolutionary thought at Occidental College
and is the director of the Skeptics Society as well as the publisher of Skeptic
magazine. His book consists of a series of essays confronting popular beliefs
about various natural phenomena, psychological and paranormal experiences,
and historical controversies. The thrust of Shermer's message is summed up
in the phrase that concludes the preface: Cogita tute, "think for yourself"
The importance of this message is under-emphasized in today's society, according
to Shermer, and has led to the inability of the general population to distinguish
scientific claims from New Age pseudoscience and other contemporary muddleheadedness.
The goal set out, and admirably achieved, is to introduce the notion of skepticism
and critical analysis to everyday life. The first section includes three chapters
describing the skeptical approach, including a presentation of 25 common fallacies
that often lead one astray in the human quest to understand the physical world.
In this section Shermer contrasts the exponential growth in professional scientific
literature and our increasingly technologically dependent society with the
overwhelming popular interest/belief in the paranormal, the supernatural, and
the unexplained. Shermer argues that it is imperative to understand science
as a method, not a subject (that is, as an approach to problem solving or understanding,
not a compendium of facts) in order to counter these trends. These early chapters
would serve as a useful primer in any introductory science course.
The remaining four sections, Pseudoscience and Superstition, Evolution and
Creationism, History and Pseudohistory, and Revolutionaries and Heretics, present
synopses of various popular beliefs and the application of Shermer's "skeptics'
tool kit." The section on evolution and creationism is concise and well done;
Shermer presents the "evolution" of the creationist arguments and the scientific
rebuttals. He includes a humorous account of his debate with arch creation
scientist and co-founder of the Institute for Creation Research, Duane Gish.
Gish and his colleagues have led the fight for the exclusion of evolutionary
theory and the inclusion of "creation science" in the public school curriculum
for the past 30 years. The account presented here elucidates some of the common
confusions regarding evolutionary theory, and provides clear definitions and
responses to specific creationist arguments. This type of treatment is imperative
for all scientists concerned with the public understanding of science. Biologists
and physicists alike will gain from the Shermer's treatment.
For cosmologists, Shermer's penultimate chapter, "Dr. Tipler meets Dr. Pangloss" applies
the skeptic's eye to John Barrow and Frank Tipler's 1986 work The Anthropic
Cosmological Principle and Tipler's more recent The Physics of Immortality:
Modern Cosmology, God and the Resurrection of the Dead. Each of the above analyses
point out where the authors depart from the materialist scientific account
of phenomena and move into the realm of the mystical and spiritual. Shermer
is at pains to explain why these pseudo-scientific claims are so appealing
to the public at large, as well as presenting coherent philosophical criticisms
of the theories themselves. Ultimately, the answer to the question of why people
believe weird things is because they want to; because it is comforting, or
familiar, or easy. As pointed out in the foreword by paleontologist Stephen
Jay Gould, the task of debunking these beliefs, like garbage disposal, seems
unglamorous or unworthy of celebration but is absolutely necessary for a safe
and sane life. This reviewer concurs whole-heartedly.
Mark E Borrello
Dept of History & Philosophy of Science
Indiana University
mborrell@indiana.edu
Climate change articles in Science Several articles
in the 29 October 1999 issue of Science emphasized the problem of diffusion
in the analysis and interpretation of isotopic ratios in paleoclimatology.
Proper interpretation of the diffusive context of gas bubbles, or anything
else, in ice, requires consideration of the diffusivity of all species involved.
The diffusion coefficients, and their nonlinear, higher-order bounding brethren,
determine the accuracy of all inferences on greenhouse gas effects, of all
estimates of climatic sensitivity to global temperature, and of many models
of the lability of ocean currents or survival of the life forms they support.
In a Science Perspective article "Calibrating the Isotopic Paleothermometer," pp.
910 - 911, Jean Jouzel introduces the main factors in converting spatial concentration
gradients to temporal ones, in the estimation of residence times of oxygen
isotopes and rare-gas ratios. With reasonable assumptions, the initial conditions
creating entrapped bubbles can be recovered, yielding ancient air or water
temperatures derived from Greenland or Antarctic ice cores. Rapid initiation
of drastic climatic change obviously is a potential danger to modern society
as we know it. What we don't know, is whether human efforts to counteract global
warming can have an effect. We suspect that the atmospheric carbon concentration,
mainly CO--2 and methane, might be a control point. We have to assume we have
at least a little influence over climate, in the long term. The cost of relatively
moderate measures to prevent drastic climatic change, as agreed in the Kyoto
Protocol, is reviewed by Hayhoe, et al, in "Costs of Multigreenhouse Gas Reduction
Targets for the USA" (pp. 905 - 906).
The geological record seems to show truly enormous climatic changes at certain
points in time. An examination by Severinghaus and Brook of the diffusive mechanisms
of climate inference, "Abrupt Climate Change at the End of the Last Glacial
Period Inferred from Trapped Air in Polar Ice" (p. 869 editorial; pp. 930 -
934) seems to have validated the occurrence of temperature changes big enough
to impoverish the modern world and occurring over a period of a few decades.
A shift equal to the average difference between summer and winter in much of
the present world is described in "16-deg C Rapid TemperatureVariation in Central
Greenland 70,000 Years Ago" by Lang, et al (pp. 934 - 937).
The 23 July 1999 issue of Science also includes several articles relevant
to global warming. "Pacemaking the Ice Ages by Frequency Modulation of Earth's
Orbital Eccentricity" by J. A. Rial, pp. 564 - 568, postulates an unknown mechanism
with phenomenology of a frequency modulation (FM) of the form Asin[Ft + Bsin(ft)]
of certain astronomical frequencies. The fit to the glaciation data, which
are oxygen isotope ratios, reveals a hitherto missing ~410 kiloyear (ky) component
in the climatic power spectrum. The evidence of this component is in the the
presence of FM-like ~100 ky sidebands. This reviewer finds it interesting that
the formula above may be viewed as the magnitude of the (dual) odd part of
Aexp[Gz + Bexp(gz)], an expression of a form sometimes used in models of growth.
"The Role of Sub-Milankovitch Climatic Forcing in the Initiation of the Northern
Hemisphere Glaciation" by K. J. Willis, A. Kleczkowski, K. M. Briggs, and C.
A. Gilligan, pp. 568 - 571 reports sediment-core pollen evidence of short-wave
components changing in frequency and amplitude at glaciation period temporal
boundaries. Again, a nonlinearity is supposed. Readers may recall that a free
gyroscope only can rotate; a child's gyroscope precesses or nutates because
of the reaction force against its supporting surface. The main driving forces
of the Milankovitch cycle are said to be gravitational, by the Sun and Moon.
One gathers from these papers that two other possible driving forces, reactions
of the Earth's crust against vertical changes in the Earth's (a) interior or
(b) atmosphere, have been neglected. Rial suggests that the linear extent of
the ice sheet may be the primary cause of the frequency modulation he has postulated.
The question of whether it should be astronomically driven or climatically
driving, is left to the reader.
A Science Perspective, "Methane in the Deep Blue Sea" by B. U. Haq, pp. 543
- 544, reviews some properties of gas hydrates, including CO2, which are widely
dispersed in sea sediment. The total carbon mass may exceed that of all known
fossil fuel sources. Solid hydrates are stronger mechanically than water ice
and are sensitive to temperature or pressure changes, which may convert them
to gas phase. They may store energy on the continental shelves which may be
released suddenly, thus sharpening the climatic effect of ice redistribution
or sea level change. Better knowledge of hydrates may make it possible to use
them as an energy source or for waste-carbon disposal.
Another Science Perspective, "The Not-So-Big U.S. Carbon Sink" by C. A. Field
and I. Y. Fung, pp. 544 - 545, introduces "The U.S. Carbon Budget: Contributions
from Land-Use Change" by R. A. Houghton, J. L. Hackler, and K. T. Lawrence,
pp. 574 - 578. The context is that of the difficulties and lack of consensus
on the quantitative aspects of the Earth's carbon cycle. The very thorough
Houghton, et al, data review suggests that there is a North American carbon
sink, but that its size may have been exaggerated because it is not in a steady
state.
John Michael Williams
P.O. Box 2697
Redwood City, CA 94064
jwill@pacbell.net